For the past 20 years, so-called blue zones—regions believed to have the highest concentrations of people living to 100 or beyond—have fascinated those interested in longevity. But now, researchers are beginning to question whether places like Okinawa, Japan, and Loma Linda, California, truly have as many centenarians as previously claimed.
The term “blue zones” was popularized in 2005 by Dan Buettner, then a journalist for National Geographic, who traveled to and studied regions known for unusually high numbers of long-lived individuals. The phrase itself first appeared in a 2004 academic study on longevity in Sardinia, Italy.
The five blue zones are:
- Okinawa, Japan
- Ikaria, Greece
- Nicoya, Costa Rica
- Loma Linda, Calif., U.S.
- Sardinia, Italy
Across these regions, residents appeared to share certain lifestyle habits—eating mostly plant-based foods, having a sense of purpose, nurturing strong social ties, and practicing a faith. Dan Buettner believed these behaviors contributed to their longevity and labeled them the “Power Nine.”
However, researcher Saul Justin Newman has challenged the credibility of these reported longevity hotspots. He argues that the high number of centenarians in blue zones may be less about healthy living and more about flawed records and pension fraud.
In 2019, Newman, a senior research fellow at University College London’s Centre for Longitudinal Studies, released a preprint paper detailing his findings. While not yet peer-reviewed, the paper examined databases from countries like the U.S. and Japan, which claim to have high numbers of the world’s oldest people. Newman noticed a striking trend while mapping over 80% of the globe’s 110-year-olds.
“What stood out,” he said on Vox Media’s Today, Explained podcast, “was that these supercentenarians weren’t showing up in areas with excellent health. In fact, they were often in regions with poor health, which oddly was the common thread among most blue zones. Many of the people listed as centenarians were actually missing or already deceased when the studies were conducted.”
Newman’s research pointed to frequent cases of pension fraud and unaccounted deaths in blue zone countries such as Japan and Greece. “They kept aging in records, but in reality, they had already passed away,” he said.
Another major issue lies in verifying ages through birth certificates. Many documents are missing or riddled with inaccuracies—a well-known problem in demographic research of elderly populations. “If you walk into a hospital without any ID, there’s no machine that can scan you and tell your age,” Newman explained to NPR. “So if errors in paperwork go unchecked, they’re nearly impossible to detect.”
In response, Buettner and his research partners published a rebuttal on his website. They argued that four of the five original blue zones—Okinawa, Sardinia, Ikaria, and Nicoya—have been confirmed through rigorous demographic methods.
Buettner told The New York Times that he regularly revisits these regions to verify records, citing cross-checks between civil registries, handwritten church documents, and genealogical data in Sardinia. Still, he acknowledged that Loma Linda, California—the lone U.S. blue zone—was somewhat of an “outlier.” He included it in his original National Geographic piece after his editor insisted on identifying “America’s blue zone.”
